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Sunday, March 14, 2004

more wind stuff
world installed wind generating capacity increased 25% last year.
8,100 megawatts added to 31 194 = 39,294.
That would mean a 4 year doubling time. If that = a shift from 1% to 2% of the annual energy supply, in 100 years = 4x 25 wind would be 25% of anual energy supply by 2100 if other factors remain equal.
other factors including demand.
2100:
wind: onshore
wind: offshore
photovoltaic: earthbased
photovoltaic:spacebased.
However, if the installed generating capacity increases 25% each year, the doubling time would be less than 4 years. Say 3 1/2? But use 4. (1.25) to the 4th=? just over 3 years.
2000 - pre-start
2004 - start - 40,000 Megawatts x 1.
2008 x 2
2012 x 4
2016 x 8
2020 x16
2024 x32
2028 x64
2032 x128
2036 x256 - in 32 years, wind produces twice todays energy needs, if 25% anual increase continues.
So, if the reality is that the future of wind production will be not less than today's annual growth, but not more than today's annual rate of growth,
wind can provide 25 to 250% of current budgets in 30 to 100 years.
2001
2004 - 40mw
2007 x2
2010 x4
2013 x8
2016 x16
2019 x32
2022 x64
2025 x128.
Now what about solar? Sharp has emerged as the clear market leader in solar power equipment with a sixfold increase in production since 1999, and it opened its first American assembly plant, in Memphis, last year. Worldwide, annual revenue from solar power equipment and installation, which reached $4.7 billion last year, will climb to $30.8 billion in 2013, according to a recent forecast from Clean Edge, a market research firm in San Francisco.
Wx6 every 10 years,
2013 30B
2023 180B
2033 1080B
Of course exponential increases don't continue indefinately. Limiting factors are encountered.

Globally the total amount of installed wind power has grown 500% since 1997, from 7,636 MW to 39,294 MW in 2003.

Growth of the wind sector is widely forecast to continue in the double digits into the next decade, even as the industry matures. A survey published by DEWI the German wind energy institute last week reported that the global market could reach 150,000 MW by 2012, worth an additional ý130 billion (159 billion).

Windy city
The global wind energy industry will meet for the first time on U.S. soil for the Global WINDPOWER 2004 Conference and Exhibition -- The future of wind energy, achieving the vision: An international perspective on the vision, goals, and challenges facing the wind industry (Chicago, Illinois, March 28-31).
More than 3,000 delegates will visit Chicago for the Global WINDPOWER2004 conference. AWEA, EWEA, and over 40 other wind energy associations worldwide are organizing the event, which will bring together the world's leading wind energy executives and policymakers to discuss the future of this clean, renewable 21st century energy source.
Perhaps they meet at noon on the art institute steps.
I would have chosen the shore behind the art institute.
GE bought a newark, de based solar power company for $15 million.

WASHINGTON (March 10) -- The global wind power industry installed 8,133 megawatts of capacity last year, The 8,133 megawatts of new capacity cost about $9 billion.
Mass Megawatts Wind Power, Inc. develops, builds, and operates state of the art wind energy power plants capitalizing on a new wind turbine design, the Multi-Axis Turbosystem (MAT). The MAT uses less material, costs less, and has smaller blades than traditional wind turbines producing clean, cost- effective wind generated power at 40 percent less than the competition. The MAT technology allows production of electricity at less than 2.5 cents per kWh in high wind areas of at least 16 miles per hour average annual wind speed recorded 100 feet above the ground.
For more information, the web site is www.massmegawatts.com or contacts the company at (508) 751-5432.
Vermont Governor Addresses Wind Power
From the 2/20/2004 Edition
Vermont Governor Jim Douglas announced that the Vermont Agency of Natural Resources has scheduled eight public meetings across the state to solicit public comment on whether state lands should be used to support wind energy development.
national solar energy conference july oregon

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