Saturday, September 17, 2005

Singularity watch: Instapundit cites to an extrapolation from current trends showing a computer with the brainpower of 6 billion people by 2060. In 2060, I'll turn 100. I think it should be possible to ride the curve of advancing medical technology to live to be a 100, given that my grandmother was 98 and I have an ancestor who was 100. Unless I get hit by a bus, or come down with something like cancer in the next ten years while I'm poor and the technology is still primitive. So this computer should be able to create some sort of simulation of me.
Meanwhile it looks like the death toll from Katrina is around 1000. Bad, but not so bad. How many people lived in New Orleans? If it were 1 million (no clue), and all 1000 dead were from the city (not so), that's a tenth of 1%, a 1 in 1000 shot of dying. around here, I have a higher than 1/1000 shot at being killed by burglars. I wonder how many people die in New Orleans in a typical week. This is not to downplay the property damage, or ongoing health concerns due to flood damage. Instapundit again points out that avian flu could kill thousands or millions. I saw a couple people at the bar who might know how my friend in New Orleans is doing, but I didn't go up and ask.

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